In 2025, the global rice market is witnessing significant fluctuations with a substantial increase in supply and intensifying price competition. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice exports are expected to reach a record 56.3 million tons, an increase of 2.3 million tons compared to the previous year. Notably, India – the world’s largest rice exporter – has lifted its ban on regular rice exports, resulting in a more abundant global supply and a forecasted slight decline in rice prices worldwide. This development poses considerable competitive pressure, especially for traditional rice-exporting countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, forcing these markets to adapt their strategies to the rapidly changing global supply dynamics.
Despite facing challenges from this substantial supply growth and price volatility, Vietnamese rice continues to maintain a strong position in the international market. In the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam exported approximately 7 million tons of rice, generating export revenues of 4.37 billion USD – an increase of 23.5% compared to the same period last year. A remarkable highlight is that Vietnam’s rice export prices remain the highest globally, with 5% broken rice averaging 534 USD per ton, which is about 30 USD higher than Thailand’s price for the same grade. This premium pricing is primarily due to Vietnam’s superior rice quality, fresh fragrant grains, and alignment with international consumer preferences, creating strong demand in competitive markets.
In addition to quality advantages, Vietnam’s opportunities in 2025 also stem from the increasing import demand from large markets such as China, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore. Alongside staple white rice, specialty and premium rice varieties like ST25 and Jasmine are gradually solidifying their presence in markets such as Japan, the European Union (EU), and the United States, thanks to their high nutritional value and consistent quality. This diversification not only broadens the export portfolio but also enhances the brand value of Vietnamese rice on the global stage.
Overall, while facing fierce competition in the global rice export market, Vietnam holds significant advantages to expand its market share. The reputation for quality and the ability to quickly adapt to market fluctuations will be key factors enabling Vietnam’s rice sector to maintain its position and achieve greater growth in the future.
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